So many things to write about. So little time.

Oh, that we would have more hours in each day, what could we accomplish!

I've outlined several ideas in my head recently to provide for your entertainment (or masochistic tendencies - depending upon your perspective). And although they are all worthwhile, I believe, I only have a few moments at the moment. So this is all you get.

You will notice that I've changed my blog template - an idea that I blatantly stole from the Zen Habits guy. Leo. That's his name.

It's cleaner looking. I've changed the links to red, so they are easier to see in contrast to the grey text. And I hear the family walking up the driveway, home from school, so I guess it's time for me to go!

I've added a blog to my blog roll

I just discovered a blog called zenhabits.

I don't really know how I found it now. Tangentially via something else that I was searching for, I'm relatively secure in saying. And I haven't really read much of it yet. But I want to. And I think that you should to. So there.

You might be thinking to yourself "Fine. You may wish to read some goofball's idea of zen life, but don't you be forcing your ideas down my throat!"

Well... I'm not really the kind of person that generally stuffs things down people's throats (Although, I think it's fair to admit that there have probably been times when I would certainly apply duct tape to a person's mouth were a roll to be nearby). So I don't think of this so much as forcing you to listen to an idea as I think of it as presenting to you information that I think may have some value to you.

Every working day, I talk about value to automobile sales consultants. Unfortunately, the vast majority of automobile sales consultants have no idea what value is. (Or if they do, they hide their knowledge very well.) Many people value the wrong things and they value them for the wrong reasons. Unfortunately, many in the marketing business have learned that value is important, so they have created the idea of perceived value. "But wait... there's more!"

An example of value that I see on this guys site is his most recent post. It is about forgiveness. I know people that have given over significant time and and energy to the feeling that someone has done something wrong to them, and that they have been hurt in some way. And they have held onto those feelings, only to their own detriment. I have felt that way in the past, and I know that I have made others feel that way. One of my goals in life is to make that happen less often. I don't know that I will ever get to the point where I do not wrong another, but I see it as a worthwhile goal.

Once I became a parent, my outlook on life changed. My children are the biggest responsibility that I have ever had in my life, and I think it would be in my best interest to see that they grow up to be intelligent, thoughtful, caring human beings (so they don't kick me to the curb in my old age).

So I started making changes in my life. I'm still wrong probably much more often than I'm right. I still hurt people that I love, and probably many more that I just come in contact with. But I am making an effort to be a better person. And if I can help you help yourself too, I think that's a good thing.

Daddy, can you get my ball back?

That sounds like such a simple request, doesn't it?

Mattea had asked me if I would play catch with her in the back yard. I agreed, but before I could, I needed to attend to something with the boys. I forget now what it was, but I'm sure that it was of the highest priority and needed tending to at that very instant.

As it happened, Mattea was practicing throwing and catching the ball on her own while waiting for me to join her. And just as I was starting to head outside, she came in with that request. While tossing the small inflatable beach ball in the air, (ball held by Grayson here. His idea to hold it in front of his face.)



it went over the wall behind the house.



I had been over the wall before on many occasions to retrieve similar items, so I didn't really think much of it when I went over to retrieve the beach ball. Oh, the arrogance of experience.

I misjudged the distance from the base of the plexiglass to the ground



and was unbalanced when I landed. (Truth in advertising - some have just said that I am generally unbalanced.) And the ground happened to be sloped away from the wall. And on the other side of the wall there happened to be tree-like shrubs.



Which I fell into. (No pictures. Sorry.)

Result: Gouge on the edge of the palm on my left hand just under my little finger, with several small flaps of skin providing visual interest. And about a four inch by four inch area scraped up by the rough bark of a particularly evil tree-like shrub, midway between my knee and ankle on the outside of my left shin. Grayson took particular interest in the blood dripping down my leg onto my foot as I cleaned my wounds. (Here I thought it might be best not to provide pictures...) Noah would rather watch "The Clone Wars".

Having dug out the larger bits of bark embedded in my extremities, I spread some Neosporin ointment over the mess in hopes of preventing something worse from befalling me. I put a Band Aid brand flexible bandage on my palm (think they'll send me a product placement check?), and let my shin air dry. However, when it was time for bed, I noticed that my shin had been oozing some bodily fluid or other and had the mis-fortune to mention this whilst Theresa was nearby. (Although... I suppose that is better than uttering something with Theresa not nearby, which would have meant that I was talking to myself.) Showing the utmost concern for my health and well-being, Theresa immediately said "Don't you be getting that stuff on my sheets!"

Casting about for something to dress my wound, I really came up with nothing specifically designed for the task. So a bit of improvisation was in order. Gauze is just loosely knit cotton, right? So I opened a drawer and grabbed a 1992 vintage Dallas Cowboys t-shirt (which I never wore unless I wore something over it) and proceeded to cut several inches off of the bottom of it. (If you're wondering why I had a Dallas Cowboys t-shirt in the first place, that's a topic for another blog post, which may follow this one. And yes... it is another story of injury and pain.) Needing to fix this make-do dressing in place I knew that we had no bandage adhesive tape around, so I did what anyone else would do. I went out into the garage and got the duct tape. With her sheets thusly protected, Theresa felt better about allowing me into bed.

So I guess the moral of the story is this: When your daughter asks you if you will get her ball back, perhaps you should ask where it is first.

And now we return to our regularly scheduled programming

I started a new project this week. I'm working in the Southern California market introducing the new Nissan cube (not capitalized) to the sales consultants in the dealership network. Nissan does not train on the last day of the month so as not to take sales consultants off of the sales floor. So I drove home last night to spend at least a little time with the family.

As I walked through the door and into the kitchen, Theresa said "You just missed it" in a somewhat harried voice. Before I could respond, she said "Not five minutes ago I was on the phone with a guy from work trying to resolve an issue, while getting the salmon ready for dinner, with Mattea reading me a poem and the boys trying to show me magic tricks. Everyone was talking at once. My head's going to explode!" I don't really remember exactly what I did next, but I think my memory blanked out as a means of self-protection.

On another note, back around the first of the month, the boys learned of various April Fools tricks that one can play on another. They were taken with the idea of short-sheeting the bed. In fact, they liked the idea so much, they short sheet their own bed, just because they can.

Life at Casa Hernandez returns to normal.

I just can't let it go...

Sorry. But in reading Colin Twiggs latest newsletter, I just love his opening comments and had to share them with you:

The G20 Summit

Is it a coincidence that world leaders are arriving in London on April Fools Day for the start of the G20 conference? Projecting an image of confidence, they assure the media of their resolve to overcome the current crisis. But if they knew what they were doing, we would not be in a crisis in the first place.

Ya gotta admit... there's probably a little something to that statement.

And I will tell you right up front - I used to be an advocate of the free market. What is good for business is good for America. Let the market prevail. What is good for the market is good for all of us.

The fallacy of this presumption is founded upon the idea that those in the business world are looking to the greater good. And as we have woefully learned, perhaps the vast majority of free market participants are looking out for number one - consequences be damned. Left to their own devices, they have created, literally, the greatest financial crisis in the history of the world. Sounds pretty damned spooky, doesn't it?

Well, it is, actually. Although, it is not the end of the world. And therein lies the ray of hope.

GM facing bankruptcy. Not really good news for a vast swath of the population. But my presumption is that they will probably survive in some form. Chrysler may indeed be liquidated and sold for parts. And when home prices get so low that some people - individuals that have not taken every credit card offer that came in the mail and maxed them out; people that have maintained little or no debt and have attained a well earned credit score of 750 plus; when those folks start saying... "Ya know... we can actually afford to get into a place now"... that is when things will start to improve. And I'm starting to think that we may be approaching that point in the not too distant future.

As recently as last week, I was telling Theresa that we still have a ways to go on the down side. But with all of the news that I try to stay on top of, I am picking out snippets here and there that tell me that the collective consciousness that is public perception is finally coming to the realization that "Yes, things are pretty bleak so perhaps we should modify our behaviour." Now most people that you stop on the street probably would not use those particular words, but they would, in some fashion I believe, convey that very same sentiment.

Do I have a crystal ball? Yes, actually. I bought it when I was a stockbroker. Kept it on my desk. And a woman one time asked me if I knew how to use it! But, alas... I must answer that query in the negative. (And, yes... sometimes I really do talk like this in real life...) (As an aside, I used the word "undulating" today to describe the quality of a road, and by the response I received you would think that most in the room had never heard the term before! Granted, it's got four syllables, but certainly it can't be that uncommon... can it?)

In any case, no one will know for certain when we have hit bottom until we can look back and say, "Yup. That was it back there." But where just last week I was thinking that we had a ways to go on the down side, I am starting to think that just maybe, the stock market lows that we saw in March, may actually be the lows of this market cycle. So what does that have to do with anything? The market is a predicter of the future. If the market bottoms here, it is predicting that the economic woes that we are facing are nearing a bottom as well.

(A quick side note, for those investors out there. I saw today that GM has some bonds that are currently yielding almost 80%. 80%! But that reminded me of an old joke - a woman goes into the market to buy dinner. The butcher has T-Bone for $9.95 a pound. She says "T-Bone was just $6.95 a pound down the street! The butcher asked why she didn't buy it there. She said because they didn't have any. The butcher responded, "If I didn't have any, I could sell it for $6.95 too." Beware the 80% yield that may not be there when it's time to collect.)

More from the economic trenches

I feel compelled to contribute additionally to my previous post. The two comments received so far both refer to the general condition of our economy, with specific mention relating to the mortgage crisis. My intention was to highlight the potential change in policy of the mark-to-market rule. But as long as we have dragged the larger picture into this, as luck would have it, I learned of an additional post by Nouriel Roubini recently that I think is relevant to our discussion.

In his post, as you will see, he received an inquiry regarding Bernie Madoff, the (illusory) millionaire criminal. Mr. Roubini talks of our current economic structure as one giant ponzi scheme. I find it difficult to disagree with his assessment.

Mr. Roubini's comments on the nature of our current situation are disagreed with by many (as indicated in the comments following this blog post (which is from a Dallas News blog, not Mr. Roubini's own)). I will talk about that further in a future post on my own blog.

With that, here is a link to Mr. Roubini's comments.

Miscellaneuos Ramblings

That should really be the name of my blog. But I would be stealing the title from an old "Road & Track" magazine column, and that just wouldn't be right. But really, when it comes right down to it, that's pretty much what my blog is about.

There is one big difference. Or perhaps two. First, I write my blog so that my family (read - my kids), should they ever decide to read it, will know more about me and what I was like and what I did when they were young. But, two - and equally important to all of my current readers - I write about things that I feel are important, and that can prove helpful in my kid's (or anyone's) life. Yes - even yours.

Sometimes my information is informative. Sometimes my stories are just stories about what I'm doing at the moment. With any luck, those will at least contain some entertainment value for the reader. As an aspiring writer, one would think that I would blog constantly. Unfortunately, my mind is such a mess that I can't really be expected to clear it out on an ongoing basis to generate enough useful information to blog about. (That's my story, and I'm sticking with it!)

What prompts this particular post is one of the financial market newsletters that I check out (Incredible Charts). I've referred to it before, but I don't know that I told you why. One reason that I like this newsletter is that it is written by a South African, living in Australia (Collin Twiggs). While writing about the U.S. (and other) markets, he brings a perspective that Americans will not (and many cannot) see. First let me start with a quote from his most recent newsletter (dated this morning):

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

~ Henry Ford

I believe that this is especially true today.

Next, let me pull out the opening paragraph of this morning's newsletter for you:

The Fed is to buy an additional $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities (bringing the total to $1.25 trillion), an additional $100 billion of agency debt (bringing the total to $200 billion), and $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities. (FRB) The total of $1.75 trillion may not fully offset the deflationary effects of the collapsing debt bubble, but should go some way towards stabilizing housing prices over the next six months — and consequently bank collateral.

Keep in mind that this is separate from and in addition to the bailout funds that have already been authorized to institutions such as AIG, with still more likely to follow. Back in September I talked about this. Generally, injecting money into the money supply leads to inflation. (Definitions of inflation: too many dollars, chasing too few goods which drives prices higher. But I think I like this one better: the act of filling something with air. (in this case, the economy)) But currently we are in a deflationary period where the price of assets is declining (see housing and the price of oil). Not being an economist (thank goodness) I have no idea which of these conflicting forces will dominate in the end.

But what really led me to making this post was a mention of the fight to change the mark-to-market pricing of so-called "toxic assets" or "troubled assets" depending upon which news source you happen to be listening to at the moment. This change is being considered by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. The following statement comes from the web site header of this organization:

Serving the investing public through transparent information resulting from high-quality financial reporting standards, developed in an independent, private-sector, open due process. (Italics are mine)

Here is the opening paragraph of their mission statement directly from their website:

The Mission of the Financial Accounting Standards Board

The mission of the FASB is to establish and improve standards of financial accounting and reporting for the guidance and education of the public, including issuers, auditors, and users of financial information.

Now, keeping all of this in mind, this was reported by the Wall Street Journal on March 13, 2009: (Excerpts only. Click on the link for the full article.)

Regulators said they are exploring ways to give banks a break on accounting, but their efforts ran into criticism from lawmakers in Congress who want faster action to prevent downward spirals.

The banking lobby said mark-to-market rules have forced banks to place unrealistically low values on hard-to-trade assets. Banks said the rules cause unnecessary hits to their capital levels, forcing them to raise money on punishing terms.

Speculation about changes to mark-to-market rules have helped drive bank shares higher in recent days.

Defenders of mark-to-market rules said it is the most-accurate way to put a value on a company, and weakening the principle would mask bad balance sheets and undermine confidence in the markets.

"Financial Accounting Standards Board Chairman Robert Herz defended the standards..."

The accounting board and regulators said they are looking at modifying the rules that apply to securities when their market value falls below book value and the securities are deemed to be permanently impaired. The board and the Securities and Exchange Commission are considering allowing banks to limit write-downs to the losses that stem from the weakened credit of the borrowers behind the securities, for example, homeowners paying back mortgages.

Still, lawmakers expressed frustration that the accounting board and SEC aren't moving faster. "If you don't act, we will," said Rep. Gary Ackerman, a Democrat from New York.

Okay - so that's some pretty heavy-duty reading. Let me try to break it down for you in terms that make more sense to me.

Let's say I buy a toaster. The toaster is uniquely designed and very attractive, and it cost me $30. I carry the toaster as an asset valued at $30 on my personal balance sheet. Mark-to-market rules state that I have to value the toaster at its market value. Well, as soon as I walk out of the store, the toaster is worth less than $30. How much less is the question. It is worth what someone else is willing to pay. No more. No less.

Current rules require banks to price their toxic assets the same way as the toaster. But their argument is that nobody wants to buy a mortgage that is not being paid on a house that is worth less than the loan amount. Never mind that just finding the mortgage can be a difficult process because it was packaged up with a bunch of other mortagages and sold to someone else. So how can it be properly valued?

It is worth what someone else is willing to pay. No more. No less.

Now my toaster just makes burnt toast. Can it be fixed? Maybe. But at what cost, and how difficult will it be and how long will it take? Certainly, this toaster is a lot less attractive now. But someone offers me $1 for it. Do I sell it, or do I keep it? If I keep it, I can value it as $30 more toward my net worth. If I sell it, I reduce my net worth by $29. I don't really want to do that.

FASB says that my toaster is worth $1. (Mark-to-market accounting)

This is where the government comes in as represented by Rep. Gary Ackerman above. It goes something like this:

"Ernie, we don't want you to experience that hardship of having to reduce your net worth by $29. That's not good for anyone. We think that you should be able to value your toaster at what you think it's worth." Naturally, I am going to place a higher value on it. But is it a realistic value? Not likely.

So much for the "transparent information" "developed in an independent, private-sector, open due process".

This is why I think that this current financial crisis is going to extend longer and deeper than most people currently believe.

Keep in mind that the chairman of FASB is currently defending the standard, but with congressional pressure, I don't know that his position will prevail. So the waters get murkier still.

I welcome any thoughts on these ideas.

PS: When my kids read this after they're grown, that uniquely designed, attractive toaster (which was repaired and well maintained) is likely to be worth $100 or more.

(For more on this, please read the first two comments.)

The Visit - Part II

Wait! Where is part one?! That was a couple of years ago, according to Jill. I have a sketchy memory at best, so I rely on Jill to be my memory in this case. Back in 2007 was the last time that I was in the great Midwest and visited some NDISB friends. Jill was one of them.

Back then, though, she was in some small town somewhere not too far from the Wisconsin - Illinois state line. Somewhere either north or south of Rockford, as I recall. Now Jill is in some small town in Iowa. I won't be more specific just in case Jill wants to protect her location from stalkers. (And let's face it... who wouldn't want to stalk Jill. I mean, after all, it is Jill we're talking about here.)

I was in St. Louis and needed to drive to Des Moines. I knew that Jill was somewhere in Iowa, but not exactly sure where. So I sent her a Private Message (PM) from the NDISB Forum to ask, and lo and behold, her small Iowa town was right on my route from St. Louis to Des Moines. I had some time on Friday morning, so me and Jill, Carter and Sawyer (Jill's "Jilldren" as a friend referenced them) all met to have coffee at Ping's Cozy Cafe. (Based on the photo, I get the feeling that it may have recently been a real estate office.) And Carter didn't really have coffee, he had some juice. And Jill had hot chocolate. And Sawyer had a pacifier. At least I had coffee.



We had a chance to visit for awhile, and I even got to hold Sawyer, who is all of two months old now. I forgot how little they weigh when they are this small. Sawyer was very well behaved and didn't squawk at all with me holding him. I don't think he ever took his eyes off of mom though.

Carter, on the other hand, is a five year old. Ping has this cute little living room style room set up in her Cozy Cafe that included a small love seat, and a couple of matching nicely upholstered chairs arranged around one of those fake fireplaces, with a fake fire inside. So Carter was sticking his hand inside the fire, trying to find the flames, and moving the fake brick hearth that was not fixed in place on the floor. You know... doing the things that five-year-old boys do. (Now imagine two of them doing that Jill. But going off in different directions at the same time!)

And Jill tried to convince me that she really does have a husband. She claims that last time, JB was off traveling somewhere, and that this time he was at work. I have yet to see any physical manifestation of the man though. Hmmmmm. (well... unless you count the kids...)

And when I talked to Theresa that evening, she said that it's not fair that I get to have met Jill twice now, and she has not done even once now. (I was thinking in British for that last sentence, as I saw SNL last night with Hugh Laurie, and he actually is British although he has a very good American accent and I just wanted to appeal to any Britishers that may be reading my blog.)

And all of this reminds me that I still need to put up photos of my trip to Idaho to visit Bob, only Bob was not there. I think that she heard that I was headed up that way and chose to leave before I got there. (Yes... Bob is a girl.) So that will probably be my next blog post. My visit to non-Bob in Idaho. Last November.

The Corollary

Corollary: 1: a proposition inferred immediately from a proved proposition with little or no additional proof 2: something that naturally follows

So, if there are many things that I don't know (which there are, I am somewhat reluctant to admit), the corollary must be, then, that there are some things that I do know.

One thing that I do know. Oases are cool.

"What?" I hear you thinking. (Yes... I can hear you think.) "Oases?"

Yes. Oases.

As you know, I am currently in the Midwest. More specifically the greater Chicago area at the moment. (Well... I was the last few days. Now I've moved on to Indianapolis.) And the greater Chicago area has a bunch of toll roads. A bunch.

I am generally not a big fan of toll roads.

First you have to stop. Then you have to open the window in your nice comfy car to the 17 degree fahrenheit outside temperature. And then you have to collect a receipt for your sixty or eighty cent toll (which I feel pretty silly about, but when you pay a lot of them, pretty soon you have lots of little receipts in your briefcase that end up getting wadded up into little balls, which you eventually just throw away anyway. At least I do...)

But... I was driving home (meaning back to my hotel) the other afternoon and I was hungry. And the Lake Forest Oasis appeared almost as a mirage... glimmering through the heat waves. Well... no. Not really. Just a bit of poetic license there. (It is, after all, an oasis. Says so right on the sign.)

So, what is an oasis on the Illinois Tollway? An urban rest stop if you will. But think rest stop on steroids. Straddling eight lanes of concrete with a gas station and car wash on either side of the freeway, the oasis spans the tollway in its own glass-walled, weather protected environment. Also a dual parking area on each side of the freeway large enough to accomodate semi-trucks on one side and the mere automotive traffic on the other allows easy access to this cocooned enclosure.

So what does one find in this travelers' delight? Coffee. The blood of every road warrior worth his or her salt. Starbucks franchises have discovered the Illinois Tollway. And donuts. Along with about a dozen or so fast food enterprises both local and national, that let you enjoy your Gyros sandwich as you watch the less hungry whiz by below you.

Alas, I did not discover this until after I left the Chicago area, but there is also free wi-fi! Free Wi-Fi! And how did I not discover this until after I left the area? Because I went to the web site to see about paying the tolls that I missed. The unmanned toll booths that want you to throw your change into a basket before you continue on your journey. Quite often I did not have the correct (or any) change, and as I saw others drive through, I figured I could do the same. The sign said, "Miss your toll? Pay online." So I figured that I could just go online, and they would tell me how much I owe. Ha! When I looked, this is what I found:

Have the required information available

• Name of registered vehicle owner
• Plate State/Number/Type (specialty plates must be identified)
• Missed Toll: Location/Plaza/Date/Time
• Print a copy of the confirmation page as your receipt

The only bit of information that I know is the state and number of my plate. Really.

I guess they'll have to hunt me down.

It was a nice Gyros sandwich though...

Things that I don't understand, Part II

Yeah, yeah... I know that I promised you the corollary to Things that I don't understand, but then I made my last post, and that got me thinking...

These don't really sound like the kind of people that take a five day cruise.

These sound like the kind of people that are doing 14 days in the Caribbean (and inquiring minds want to know... is it Ca-rib-be-an? Or is it Ca-ri-be-an. Not me... just those inquiring ones...)

So... these kids get there 40 bucks a day each to go blow on video games. And let's say that mom and dad have some restraint. Not much, mind you, but some. So they only give their kids their allowance for 10 days of the cruise. Now the video game money gets up to $1200. $1200!

So now we have the cost of the cruise, and the extra $1200 for Asteroids. What's that, you say? They don't play Asteroids anymore? Pac Man? What about Missile Command. I loved Missile Command! Surely, they play Centipede? Hmm... kids today.

And... as Jen asked (and yes Jen, you are one of the eight), what are they doing playing video games on a cruise anyway? If my kids are going on a cruise, they are going to be doing cruise things. (Having never been on a cruise, I don't really know what those things might be, but I'm pretty sure they involve something more than a television and a controller.)

Better yet, leave the kids at home with a sitter. (Spend the 1200 bucks on the sitter. She can probably use the money anyway.) And take the money that you saved on the kids cruise fare and squander it on yourself at the ships' casino!

Okay. I feel better now.

WHAT?!

This from todays USA Today (page D1) apparently regarding traveling with teenagers on a cruise:

"The kids get a set amount of money put on their sea pass account, normally $40 a day. (It sounds like a lot, but video games are almost $2 each.) Sometimes they bring their own money or earn more before we go." Five-Rileys

Okay.

I take it that Five-Rileys are a family of five. This would imply two parents and three kids. There could be variations, but work with me here.

Three kids.

$40 a day per kid = $120 a day.

Let's say its a short 5 day cruise.

5 times $120 a day = $600.

$600. For three kids to play video games that they would have been happier to do at home!

Oh yeah. Plus the cost of the cruise.

"It sounds like a lot"!?

It is a lot!

But "Sometimes they bring their own money".

There's always that, I guess...

Things that I don't understand

Yes.

I know.

There are so many.

So many.

But sometimes, I just can't help but ponder one. And it just doesn't really make sense to me. So I must blog about it. Perhaps one of my eight or so blog readers can make some sense of this for me.

The American Midwest. Occasionally called middle America. Sometimes referred to as America's heartland.

Did you know that the Midwest is actually one of four regions recognized by the United States Census Bureau? There it is, right along with the Northeastern, Southern and Western regions. With its official designation, one might think that it actually resided in the middle western portion of the United States, wouldn't one? I mean, that would be a reasonable assumption, wouldn't it? Southern states are in the South. Western states, the West. Northeastern states... you get the idea.

I've been in the midwest for four days now, and have been in three states. I started out in Minnesota on Sunday, then down to Wisconsin, and now over to Illinois. You know... the state where the Governor just got kicked out of office today? In any case, as I was training a group of sales consultants on Tuesday in Madison, Wisconsin, a young lady looked in the glove box of the Acura TL (of which I am currently training), and commented on the gloves that I had in said glove box. They are large, water-repellent, battery-operated, heated ski gloves. My lovely wife gave them to me. For when we go skiing. Which we did last, I believe sometime before Mattea's birth some nine years ago. But I digress.

The young lady said something to the effect of "What, you're coming to the midwest so you thought you needed those?"

Well... yes, actually. When I was in the United States Navy before many of you were born, we referred to such equipment as "foul-weather gear". I didn't have the heart to tell the young lady that 3 degrees fahrenheit is indeed foul weather. And that was the high temperature of the day. (Although... in my defense... I had not put the batteries in the gloves. Yet.)

The Midwest region consists of twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. I will make my way to Ohio soon. Ohio is the easternmost state of the region. The distance from Hazelton, Ohio to Atlantic City, New Jersey is 506.231 miles as the crow flies. Give or take a bit. I chose Hazelton, Ohio because it is near the eastern Ohio state line and because just across the state line in Pennsylvania lies Friendsville. How could you not select a town, when offered the opportunity of mentioning Friendsville, Pennsylvania? (Many people refer to state lines as borders. They are not borders. They are state lines. Borders separate countries. And as much as we may wish that Texas were its own country, it still only has state lines shared with the rest of us.)

Now let's go over to the other side of the region. The west end, so to speak. The distance from Henry, Nebraska, hard on the border (I mean, state line) with Wyoming, to Eureka, California is just about 1074.351 miles as the crow flies. As of the 2000 Census, Henry had 63 more citizens living in it than Friendsville did. Just thought I'd share that with you in case you chose not to click on the links that I so carefully provided for you, in order for you to learn more about America's heartland. Ingrate.

And just in case you have not fully developed a picture in your mind of the positioning of the American Midwest, let me provide for you a visual reference (courtesy of Wikipedia, courtesy of somebody else):



So... will somebody tell me, please... why is this called the Midwest? If you were to draw a line directly down the middle of the country and divided it into two pieces, one eastern and one western, every single state in the "midwest" would either be entirely in the eastern half, or have some portion in the eastern half, of the United States. With the possible exception of North Dakota, but nobody really cares about North Dakota anyway. (Although Frances McDormand and William H. Macy were in a wonderful movie about Fargo.)

Yes... these are the things that I think about. I have more to write about this topic. Its corollary, actually. But I imagine that you probably really can't take much more at the moment, so I believe that I'll hold off for a day or so to let you absorb this post. Until then...

So... what's up with that?

Long time blog readers of mine were probably thinking something along those lines when they saw my last blog post.

I can hear it now. "Why is he writing about stuff that I can read about in the paper? And I don't care about the Chargers anyway!"

Well... it's kinda like this.

Theresa's online business (Natural Designs in Scrapbooking) has this promotion going on right now. There are about 450 women involved in a six week long event, that amazingly enough, revolves around Scrapbooking. Digital Scrapbooking. And it is called The Amazing Digi-Scrapping Race (or ADSR for short). It is very loosely based on the television program "The Amazing Race" where racers go to places all over the world and compete with each other. In Theresa's version, they go to various digital scrapbooking sites and are required to complete various challenges. Well the first challenge hostess posted Theresa's and my blog addresses. When I found out, I remembered that my most recent blog post was about sinus congestion. So I'm thinking to myself... quick... post something! Or the two people that actually come over and look at your blog will think "I came over here to read this?!" I happened to have a picture of us on my phone from the game, so I thought "Football! I can blog about football!"

So that's what that was about.

But now, I have other photos to blog about:



That's Grayson, after he lost his first tooth. I don't really know what's up with the thumb and finger thing, but I liked this shot, so I put it up. Here's another one:



But I've got a photo of Noah that I have to show you too. But you can't scroll down and look at it until you read this. No Cheating!

Noah and Grayson were playing together at school. They were on the swings at recess, and Grayson says something along the lines of "Noah... let's do this!" And he proceeded to lean backward as far as he possibly could so he was essentially lying down while swinging on the swing. And Noah thought that seemed like a really excellent idea. But always needing to outdo his brother, he was probably swinging higher and leaning back further and tilting his head back. Which led to this:



I personally think that he's lucky that he didn't break his neck.

I apologize for the grainy pictures, but they're just iPhone shots. So there you have another day with Casa Hernandez!

So... what are the odds?

The Chargers made it into the playoffs.

Before the season started, they were highly rated to make it into the Superbowl. By midseason... not so much. When they got to 4 and 8, I'm sure nobody gave them a chance. I know I didn't have high hopes.

But they made it into the playoffs, winning their division with an 8 and 8 record, aided by the total collapse of the Denver Broncos.

Here is a photo of Theresa and me at last weekends game against Denver:



(And no, Theresa is not wearing a Broncos jersey. That is a Ladainian Tomlinson Pro Bowl jersey. You know... for players that make it into the Pro Bowl? :) )

Yesterday they took on the Indianapolis Colts who we had lost to earlier in the season by a field goal, I believe on the last play of the game, if I remember correctly. I knew it would be a close game, but didn't know how close. How about tied at the end of regulation? And the Chargers went on to score a touchdown in overtime to move on. My vocal cords will probably never be the same!

Next week it's the Steelers on Sunday.

But there is a key element...

and that element is lying down long enough. (See my previous post first, if you haven't read it already.)

Last night we took the kids to the next block over, which is famous for its Christmas light display among all of the houses. And one night each season (last night being the night), many of the homeowners welcome visitors with sweets, hot chocolate, warm cider, coffee or eggnog (some even offering adult additives!) The word has gotten out, apparently, as the street was crowded with not only local neighbors, but the surrounding streets were overflowing with parked cars as others came to view the sight.

But before we left I needed to re-apply my newfound sinus reliever, which had lasted for almost 24 hours. But I did not have the time to lie down for long. And I found the benefit was not nearly as, well, beneficial.

So, you must not only use it. You must also use it to optimum effect!

Afrin ROCKS!

As a long time sufferer of sinus congestion due to allergy related issues I have periodically had sinus infection issues to deal with. If you have ever had a head that felt ready to explode, you know of which I speak!

I remember a moment in time about 25 years ago when a young doctor recommended Afrin for nasal congestion. For some reason, I promptly forgot about it, and have used various other remedies with less or more success, depending I suppose on the level of congestion that I was experiencing.

A few months ago I had a sinus infection that just would not quit and the urgent care physician put some over-the-counter nose drops in that cleared the congestion within minutes. Blessed relief! So I went to the drug store and bought some more, but in a few hours time the congestion returned, worse than before. I seemed to remember having lived through this experience way back in the beginning of time. But when I couldn't sleep due to not being able to breathe, I used the drops but awoke several hours later totally unable to breathe through my nose.

Fast forward to yesterday, when, once again I found myself in a doctor's office with unbearable congestion. This time it was my own doctor. She suggested the use of Afrin spray. Having remembered the original recommendation of a couple decades back, and having more faith in my doctor than an urgent care physician, I decided to try the Afrin spray.

Being an extremely frugal type, I bought the generic Rite Aid brand of Oxymetazoline Hydrochloride .05% spray. The label said to use it every 10-12 hours (which sounded better to me than the shorter term relief of some other products). But having been sleep deprived for days due to the congestion, I thought that I'd wait until the evening to try it.

About 8:00 PM last night I followed the directions on the bottle and to assist in its distribution, I laid down on the bed so that gravity would be working with me, rather than against me.

Within about 15 minutes or so I could breathe easily. And I was able to sleep (and breathe) all night. As I write this, it is about 1:30 PM (17 1/2 hours later), and I have not had to re-apply the medication.

Afrin ROCKS!

For the record, the drops that caused the huge rebound effect were Phenylephrine Hydrochloride 1.0%

You heard it here first!

July 16 I predicted that Barack Obama would be the next president of the United States.

My prediction

No matter your thoughts on who would make a better president back then, president-elect Obama came across as more presidential. Anecdotally, I heard on public radio yesterday that many of us make decisions based on visual information alone. What I found surprising from this study was the finding that was presented. A positive visual response generated no extraordinary brainwave activity. But a negative visual response generated a significant negative brainwave activity.

Good luck to all of us as we move into an extremely challenging chapter in the history of the United States.

In other news, I drove through my old home town this afternoon, and I drove through Rio Vista, the town where I went to high school. Small towns don't change much, and Rio Vista is no exception. But my old home town (Isleton, California) population less than 1000, has really deteriorated. Extremely small towns often don't have much money, and Isleton is no exception. But it seemed almost every other building on main street was vacant, some were boarded up and for sale. It was sad to see.

Perhaps, though, my mindset was still framed by my visit to my mom's gravesite earlier in the afternoon. My mom died on December 7, 2000. Mattea was not yet 10 months old, and the boys were still a few years away from their arrival. I don't get to the area often, but when I do, I try to swing by and say hi. Though I can think of my mom whenever I want to, my visits to her grave always make me draw out that thought process. Inevitably I remember things that make me smile. And I always think that she died too soon. She was only 76.

But that's the thing about life. We never know where it is taking us, or how much of it we have still to live. In the words of Mrs. Gump: "Life's a box of chocolates, Forrest. You never know what you're gonna get."

I still make too many mistakes in my life. I make poor choices. I say things that I shouldn't. I do things that I shouldn't. But I try to do better each day. I actively seek to improve not only my life, but the lives of those around me. One of my strongest desires is to raise Mattea and Noah and Grayson to be independent thinkers, and that they have respect for themselves and others. I continue to be amazed on a daily basis by the people in this world that simply lack respect. It is such a simple thing to have, but apparently difficult to achieve.

One way that I do to try to improve myself is to read things that might help me. Somewhere I heard about "The Four Agreements" by Don Miguel Ruiz written in 1997, and I had the title written on a sticky-note stuck to one of my computer monitors for the last month or two. I finally picked up a copy and started reading it the other night. I still find it amazing that some of the simplest ideas are truly the most powerful. I recommend it as a way to help you improve your interaction with those around you, and improve your life generally.

I notice, as I re-read my blog (which I generally do several times before I actually publish a post) that I refer to Isleton as my old home town. But that actually makes sense. Isleton was my home town. I grew up there. But I left when I was 18. I've lived in San Diego (actually, the greater San Diego area) since 1978. 31 years. I think that makes San Diego qualify as my home town now. (For those of you wondering about the missing four years (I'm 53), that is when I was in the Navy and moved around. I spent much of that time underwater in a submarine.)

It's getting late, and my mind is beginning to wander, and you are probably wondering why I am blathering on like this. When I get to this state, I always think that it is best just to say good night.

Good night!

The importance of an exit strategy

This is a topic that I have given much thought to over the past couple of years, and one that I have been meaning to blog about for some time. In fact, I have thought about starting a blog devoted solely to this topic, and perhaps writing a book about it.

Yes... it is that important.

The importance of an exit strategy should be obvious to anyone. If you do a thing, what will be the consequence of that action. "Actions have consequences" I say over and over and over again to my children. Repetition breeds retention. At some point in their lives (one that, unfortunately, they have not yet achieved), they will come to this realization. Unfortunately, it is an idea that is foreign to many in all walks of life.

The example that many are thinking of as you read these words is the current war in Iraq. Although that is a classic example of doing a thing and not knowing what the consequence will be, it is not the example that I have in mind. (Food for thought - don't start an argument without giving thought to how you will exit the situation.)

What brings about my post today is the current economic crisis, and our government's response to it. It has taken years to develop our ongoing economic deterioration as a nation, but no one seemed to notice, or if they did, they were so high up the food chain they just decided that they would take their millions and go home when the game was over. What makes anyone - those on Wall Street, those on Main Street, and, yes, those in the government - think that a proposal crafted in a week is the answer? Guess what? It's not.

Although I am a dismal failure at my investment attempts in the market (just ask Theresa), it is not because of a lack of understanding. It is because of a lack of discipline to establish a plan and stick with it. I have developed many investment systems that have proven highly successful, but I lack the patience to see my efforts through to fruition. (I also have more than a bit of a gambler in me, and as such, am drawn to highly leveraged situations that do really well when they work, but can (and have) caused large losses when the timing is just a little bit off.) In my research, I read a wide variety of sources for financial market information, both here in the U.S. and abroad. One newsletter that I take had this to say:

I am convinced that the stock market is in serious trouble. We face the contraction of a credit bubble that was 30 years in the making. The Fed cannot save major banks from insolvency if housing prices continue to fall. The political system has failed to address the problem, preferring to merely postpone it by printing more money. That is a road to nowhere: the credit bubble will simply grow bigger and bigger until the system collapses. This may be our last chance to avoid a 1930s style depression. Any candidate in the November election who proposes to borrow more money for another stimulus package is being fiscally irresponsible. What we need is for someone to take charge and clean up the mess — not throw another party.

Incredible Charts - August 26, 2008

Here is another post from the same author:

The takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may provide welcome relief to financial markets in the short term, but this will not save the economy from the approaching credit crunch. Estimates of write-downs from the mortgage crisis range between $500 billion and $1 trillion. Replacement equity has dried up as the solvency crisis deepens and further potential losses from falling housing prices cast a shadow over the market. In the same way that banks can increase lending by $10 for every $1 increase in reserves, the opposite is likely to occur with any decrease in reserves. A $500 billion write-off from reserves, with no ready means of replacement, will force a $5 trillion contraction in bank credit. Roughly equal to the entire mortgage portfolio of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — or 10 times the annual GDP of Australia. On top of that we face gradual contraction of the two GSE's mortgage portfolios over the next four to five years as Treasury attempts to bring them back under control. And there's more. The financial sector still faces further contraction of off-balance sheet funding structures as well. While the above calculations are rough and ready, we can be sure that the global credit contraction will be a big number. And neither the Fed nor Treasury have the resources to continually come to the rescue.

Incredible Charts - September 11, 2008

The author of Incredible Charts, Colin Twiggs, publishes his newsletter in Australia and provides analysis on worldwide markets.

Recently, I came across a name that I did not recall having heard before - Nouriel Roubini. It seems that Mr. Roubini has strong credentials within our government in the Treasury Department, and as an independent economist and professor of Economics at New York University. Mr. Roubini has over the years made many observations about global economic practices, strategies and collapses, and was recently the subject of an article in The New York Times Magazine. What follows are some quotes from that article, for those that do not wish to read it in its entirety:

On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.

Over the past year, whenever optimists have declared the worst of the economic crisis behind us, Roubini has countered with steadfast pessimism. In February, when the conventional wisdom held that the venerable investment firms of Wall Street would weather the crisis, Roubini warned that one or more of them would go “belly up” — and six weeks later, Bear Stearns collapsed.

The ’90s were an eventful time for an international economist like Roubini. Throughout the decade, one emerging economy after another was beset by crisis, beginning with Mexico’s in 1994. Panics swept Asia, including Thailand, Indonesia and Korea, in 1997 and 1998. The economies of Brazil and Russia imploded in 1998. Argentina’s followed in 2000. Roubini began studying these countries and soon identified what he saw as their common weaknesses. On the eve of the crises that befell them, he noticed, most had huge current-account deficits (meaning, basically, that they spent far more than they made), and they typically financed these deficits by borrowing from abroad in ways that exposed them to the national equivalent of bank runs. Most of these countries also had poorly regulated banking systems plagued by excessive borrowing and reckless lending. Corporate governance was often weak, with cronyism in abundance.
(Sound familiar?)

After analyzing the markets that collapsed in the ’90s, Roubini set out to determine which country’s economy would be the next to succumb to the same pressures. His surprising answer: the United States’. “The United States,” Roubini remembers thinking, “looked like the biggest emerging market of all.” Of course, the United States wasn’t an emerging market; it was (and still is) the largest economy in the world. But Roubini was unnerved by what he saw in the U.S. economy, in particular its 2004 current-account deficit of $600 billion. He began writing extensively about the dangers of that deficit and then branched out, researching the various effects of the credit boom — including the biggest housing bubble in the nation’s history — that began after the Federal Reserve cut rates to close to zero in 2003. Roubini became convinced that the housing bubble was going to pop.
(I don't know where the New York Times gets its current account numbers. Apparently, they are hard to come by - at least accurately. It seems the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis pegs the Current Account Deficit at $183 billion. But if you go to the government's Central Intelligence Agency (that's right, the CIA) World Factbook, the Current Account Deficit was over $738 billion last year.)

Only a handful of 20th-century economists have even bothered to study financial panics. (The most notable example is probably the late economist Hyman Minksy, of whom Roubini is an avid reader.) “These are things most economists barely understand,” Roubini told me. “We’re in uncharted territory where standard economic theory isn’t helpful.”

For months Roubini has been arguing that the true cost of the housing crisis will not be a mere $300 billion — the amount allowed for by the housing legislation sponsored by Representative Barney Frank and Senator Christopher Dodd — but something between a trillion and a trillion and a half dollars. But most important, in Roubini’s opinion, is to realize that the problem is deeper than the housing crisis. “Reckless people have deluded themselves that this was a subprime crisis,” he told me. “But we have problems with credit-card debt, student-loan debt, auto loans, commercial real estate loans, home-equity loans, corporate debt and loans that financed leveraged buyouts.” All of these forms of debt, he argues, suffer from some or all of the same traits that first surfaced in the housing market: shoddy underwriting, securitization, negligence on the part of the credit-rating agencies and lax government oversight. “We have a subprime financial system,” he said, “not a subprime mortgage market.”

The New York Times Magazine, August 15, 2008

I don't know about you, but in the event that we are in the midst of a never-before-seen state of economic conflagration, I'm personally a little more comfortable with the opinion of someone who has studied similar states of distress before, as opposed to being inclined to listen to the same economists who have been saying all along that everything is going to be just fine.

So, to summarize - we are facing a situation that may cost anywhere from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and the government wants to print a mere $250 billion to throw at it. What they're not saying is how much the next wave is going to cost, and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that.

There is no exit strategy.

By the way... even if you are not of the habit of leaving blog comments, I would appreciate your feedback on the idea of a blog on this topic (not the economy, but the importance of an exit strategy in life). Thanks!

Flux: A continuous moving on or passing by

I didn't really know what to title this post, when the idea of change came to me. I knew what my topic would be, as I've been meaning to write about this for awhile now; I just didn't know how I would frame it.

Flux seems to cover it - A continuous moving on or passing by.

As in time... life... experience. All are in a state of flux, whether we wish them to be or not.

I recently started taking a massage class. But the reason that I started taking the massage class is because it is the first step in becoming a Holistic Health Practitioner. And the reason that I want to become a Holistic Health Practitioner is that I do not want to be in my 60's and still training in the automobile industry and having to travel a significant amount of time to earn a living. Because, as many of you know, when I'm working, I'm traveling. I like the work part, but the traveling part is starting to wear on me, especially given that I now have kids that like it when I'm home, and don't like it when I'm gone. (I think my wife likes it when I'm home too.)

What I have learned, being a trainer for the past 16 years or so, is that I like helping people. Being a car guy, I get to talk about cars, and learn about cars, and drive new cars and generally have a pretty good time. And people pay me to do it. Now if you are a car guy, and you like helping people, ya gotta admit... that's not a bad way to make a living.

But looking to the future, I realized that I needed to find another path to take. Admittedly, I did not know what that path would be. But I have been a consumer of massage for several years now. And not long ago, a first time consumer of chiropractic care as well. And I guess one day, as I sat at my desk and contemplated various future scenarios of my life, I stumbled across the idea of becoming a trainer/practitioner in the alternative health care industry. This idea seemed to make sense to me for a number of reasons.

As Mattea and the boys have started growing up, and become more aware of the things going on in their lives, I wanted to be sure that what they were seeing in me was the most positive role model that I could possibly be. (Remember the discussion about always modeling behaviour?) They don't really have an idea of what I do for a living now, they just know that I'm gone a lot when I work. When they do start to ask more about what I do, and have a better grasp of how I earn my way in the world, I would like to think that I could say to them something like "I help people live their lives in a healthier way, and I help teach others to help even more people live their lives in a healthier, happier way". I would like nothing more than to see all of our children become positive influences in this world in whatever way they might be able to contribute.

Also, when I become a trainer/practitioner in the alternative health care industry, I see this as something that I can do until I am no longer able to do anything. I truly don't see myself ever not working. What would I do if I didn't work?

So I started looking around at schools in the San Diego area that would be able to start me on the path of becoming a Holistic Health Practitioner (HHP). While there are more than one would think, the one that I ended up going with (Body Mind College) had a couple of things going for it, in my view.

Their basic philosophy about the approach to becoming a HHP is this: Healer, heal thyself. Even something as basic as the beginning Massage Technician class, which I enrolled in, starts with learning Tai Chi. In their words "We train you in T’ai Chi so that you can learn to use your body in a way that you will not be injured doing massage." Since everything else is built upon the foundation, it seems that a proper foundation is key. It sounds foolish to say that there are massage classes being taught without regard to not injuring yourself while giving the massage, but after just walking through a mall the other day, and seeing massage practitioners practicing at massage chairs with mall patrons, it became obvious to me that my three classes have already taught me more about the proper stance to work from than any of these practitioners were using. And even more, I knew why they were not standing properly.

Also, one of the faculty members (and one of the teachers of this particular Massage Technician class) is a guy that I met through racing over twenty years ago, and had not seen in about ten years or so. Last time I saw Dave, I knew that he had gotten into massage, but he has been a practitioner for about fourteen years now, and a teacher for about ten.

I have had an opportunity to attend a few classes now, and I am amazed at how quickly things progress. Naturally, Theresa is looking forward to the point in time when I need to practice on someone, and I have already heard from others who would be interested in "volunteering" should I need additional practice time.

Because of my travel, I have had to miss some classes already, and I will unfortunately miss a few more going forward. But this first program is only a couple months long, and I have been able to arrange my schedule to make it to most of the remaining classes. I can also meet with some of the other students to make up the lost time.

I am truly looking forward to this journey. Once the initial Massage Technician classes are complete, I can take a look at what would be the best way to continue on my path. I can say for certain that I am excited about the pursuit of this new era of my life. I look forward to the benefits that it will bring to me, and the many benefits that I can bring to others.

And yes, once I get to that point, I will gladly offer to practice on you.

So... what's up with that!

Marketing, I guess. Making people believe that they need something, that they really don't need, and probably would be better off without.

"So what's he going off about this time" I hear you thinking. Yes. I can hear you thinking. I really am that perceptive.

I flew into Nashville yesterday, for a weeks' worth of training on a program that I will not work on. Well... hopefully anyway.

Nissan has just started an ongoing, year-round training program for their sales consultants, to supplement the new model launch training which has been the mainstay of their training for years. They will be providing continual training on existing models now, which is a good thing, as many of the sales consultants were not around when the vehicle was initially launched. Anyway... they hired 18 trainers to perform this function. But with a program like this, you really need to have some alternate trainers for those unavoidable situations when an alternate is required. So I was asked to be an alternate.

So what has this got to do with my rant, you ask?

I got up this morning and made some coffee in my hotel room and when I sat down at the desk to go online and see what was happening in the world I moved my briefcase from the desktop. I should say, unglued it from the desktop. I can still see the contact points left behind, as I peeled my satchel from the table.

Apparently, the hotel management thinks that clearing away dust with a cloth, or duster, is not nearly effective enough. One must have their staff spray way too much "Pledge" or somesuch concoction onto the surface, which builds up over time, and develops this nice tacky surface on which to place things. Yes. That is a much better option that just clearing the dust away, and leaving a nice tacky-less surface.

Marketing...